Oscars 2026: How Will Your Favorites Fare In this Year's Grand Award Show? Predictions and More

By Eshaan Dey

Oscars day is right around the corner, and this year is looking to be one of the more competitive shows in recent years. So far in the 2020s, the biggest winners each year have been Nomadland with 3 awards, Dune with 6, Everything Everywhere All At Once with 7, Oppenheimer with 7, and Anora with 5. All of these except for Dune won the coveted best picture award as well. However, coming off of the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, this year seems like it will paint a different picture: a certain movie might win big in the technical award, while other movies will steal all of the acting awards leaving director, screenplay, and picture to one movie.

Recapping the Critics Choice Awards, which kicked off award season, Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic Sinners already showed signs of being the favorite for the most wins at the Oscars. It won Best Screenplay, Best Young Actor, Best Casting, and Best Score. It tied with Frankenstein, which won Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, Best Hair and Makeup, and Best Supporting Actor, for the most awards. One Battle After Another (OBAA) won big in Best Picture, Best Screenplay, and Best Director, the big three non-acting awards. 

But, the Golden Globes revealed completely different trends. After the Critics Choice Awards, social media lit up with proponents of Sinners claiming that the film was snubbed of acting awards and best picture on top of some technical categories. They were then shocked during the Golden Globes when they saw Sinners falling to Hamnet in the Best Drama Movie category where the supposed main competitor OBAA wasn’t even included, and Michael B. Jordan fall to Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) in the Best Drama Actor category, again without competing against the main opponents Leonardo DiCaprio and Timothee Chalamet. Additionally, OBAA won the same “big three” awards during this ceremony. This indicates high promise for the Oscarless Paul Thomas Anderson. Will he finally receive the award that has eluded him for so long? It’s very likely.

Because of the controversy of the Golden Globes, with surprise wins such as Stellen Skarsgard taking home the Best Supporting Actor award for his performance in Sentimental Value over Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein, the Oscars are going to be almost impossible to predict. With the Academy’s final list of nominations coming out, most categories show similar trends to the previous two award shows. Sinners again dominated the nominations list, even breaking the previous record for most nominations for the Academy Awards by 2. There are a few “snubs” that have been inevitably called out on social media: Ariana Grande lost a nomination for Best Supporting Actress to Elle Fanning; F1 somehow claimed a spot on the Best Picture list over Blue Moon, Sirat, and more; the new star Chase Infiniti lost what would be a landmark nomination for Best Actress to a surprise inclusion of Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue. 

With all of this, let’s ask the big question: what are the Oscars actually going to look like in terms of wins? Here are my predictions for the “big 5” awards (and a few more) at the 98th ceremony of the Academy Awards:

Best Actor:

Timothee Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Michael B. Jordan were predicted to be the frontrunners, but with a surprise win from Wagner Moura in the Golden Globes, this category is the most heated it has been in years. Regardless, Timmy C. claimed victory in the first two shows for his captivating performance in Marty Supreme, and has lost out to this award twice in the past, which is why I believe that he is overdue for a win. WINNER: TIMOTHEE CHALAMET

Best Actress: 

This one almost seems like a no-brainer; Jessie Buckley won the first two award shows for her emotionally gripping performance in Hamnet. She made audiences around the world cry (admittedly I might have shed a tear as well) and captured the essence of her role perfectly. However, Rose Byrne is in close competition for her performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and she must not be counted out. WINNER: JESSIE BUCKLEY

Best Director:

The only competition here is between Ryan Coogler for Sinners and Paul Anderson for OBAA. Although Chloe Zhao made one of the most beautiful scripts come alive on the screen for Hamnet, only her 5th feature film, she will likely be disregarded for the other two giants in this category. While many believe Coogler deserves the award for his groundbreaking combinations of Ultra Panavision 65 and IMAX formats, the other two award shows point in a different direction. WINNER: PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON

Best Screenplay (Adapted and Original):

There is no dispute in this category. Maybe Hamnet steals it from OBAA in the adapted section and there’s even less of a chance for Sentimental Value or Marty Supreme to take it from Sinners. But those two films featured exceptional writing that will not be beaten this year. WINNERS: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and SINNERS

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: 

So far, Jacob Elordi won for his role in Frankenstein and Stellen Skarsgard won for Sentimental Value. In my opinion, neither should take home the Oscar. Sean Penn delivered an exceptional performance-he created the tension filled atmosphere of OBAA. I would love to see him win, even if he already has 2 Oscars, but unfortunately it most likely will not happen. WINNER: STELLEN SKARSGARD

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

The award for an Actress in a supporting role could go any way: Teyana Taylor could snag it for her short but impactful performance in OBAA; Amy Madigan could win for her chilling performance in Weapons; Inga Lilleaas could upset the competition for her emotional performance in Sentimental Value. Right now it’s hard to tell. But I’d personally give the edge to a role that will go down as one of the most transformative horror villains in the future. WINNER: AMY MADIGAN

Best Picture:

Last but not least, we have the grand award of the night. While Sinners is objectively the most well-rounded film (can’t get 16 nominations for nothing), OBAA has won this award in both prior shows. I loved both films, with Sinners providing a nuanced perspective on the intersection of Black history, culture, and supernatural horror, and OBAA showing creative expertise through technical and visual mastery, so I wouldn’t be upset with either. WINNER: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER